The tariffs may be on pause, but the uncertainty is not. As the United States navigates a tense economic climate, families, companies and students are already feeling the stress of stalled investments, rising prices and unclear futures.
The current uncertainty stems mainly from international trade tensions. While the United States recently agreed to a 90-day pause on certain tariffs, questions still remain about what will happen when that pause ends. Steven Kaplan, a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, said this standstill is already having an impact.
“With the tariffs, there is massive uncertainty,” Dr. Kaplan said. “The financial climate was somewhat calm before the tariffs, and now with the tariffs, there’s a lot of uncertainty.”
That uncertainty is already affecting businesses, with many companies putting off hiring or investment decisions. However, it is not only economists and executives feeling the impact. Students are paying attention, too — especially those with an eye on the financial markets.
“I will say for Americans at this time, it is a very, very stressful time,” Ayush Mishra, co-president of U-High’s Finance club, said. “Whatever side of the aisle someone is on, they’ll agree that tariffs are inherently inflationary — they raise prices. And so that will ultimately slow down the economy.”
Ayush said that in Finance Club, their stock pitches now include a slide or two about tariffs and their impact on investments.
Dr. Kaplan sees the ripple effect extending beyond just investors.
“People get nervous,” Dr. Kaplan said. “They see their stock portfolio go down, they see the uncertainty, and they are more cautious.”
He warns that this caution can lead to reduced consumer spending, hiring freezes and even job losses.
However, both Dr. Kaplan and Ayush pointed to some signs of hope.
“The stock market hasn’t crashed, it’s declined,” Dr. Kaplan said. “It’s still higher than it was a year ago, so that’s what people forget. We’re not in a depression at the moment.”
He also emphasized the importance of long-term thinking in a world of cycles.
“I lived through the great financial crisis of ’08-’09, which was very grim and more grim than today,” he said. “And you come out of it. So I think you basically need to just be positive. And, when you have downturns, you know, work through them. And when you have upturns, enjoy them.”
Ayush added that discussions around tariffs are opening space for conversations about equity and shared responsibility.
“For people who are living on a tighter budget where a 20-30% increase on certain goods can really impact the way they live their day-to-day lives, that could be extremely substantial,” Ayush said. “Tariffs are gonna affect people unequally and inequitably, and so it’s a responsibility within the Lab community to make sure that all our members are able to feel supported and get through this very uncertain time in finance.”
Looking toward the future, Dr. Kaplan highlighted the relevance of the longer-term positive of artificial intelligence in the world of finance.
“ You’ve got this short term uncertainty with the tariffs,” Dr. Kaplan said. “You’ve got medium term uncertainty with AI — It’s going to change a lot of things and, I think overall, it’s going to change things for the better. But there will be winners and losers.”
